The Politics of the Latino Vote

It’s summer, so, of course, politics is in the air.

The Republicans are holding their convention next week. As I write this, Democrats are wrestling with Joe Biden’s nomination. And, here in New York’s 1st Congressional District, we have newcomer John Avlon, a Democrat, squaring off against the one-term Republican incumbent, Nick LaLota.

Buried among the more attention-grabbing headlines is a recent story reported by Newsday that’s worth noting for its political implications: Long Island’s Latino population continues to grow, mirroring a national trend.

The growth here is relatively small, 1.1 percent, or 6,871 people, between July 1, 2022, and July 1, 2023, but it’s inexorable. Long Island’s Latino population is now 610,696.

What makes this story intriguing is that Long Island’s non-Hispanic white population declined by 1.6 percent, a drop of 28,552. Overall, the population of Long Island shrank by 8,383.

By my back-of-the-matchbook calculations, that means that Latinos now make up about 21 percent of Long Island’s population. It’s where Long Island’s growth is. It’s where a heck of a lot of potential voters are. It’s the future.

Historically, Latinos have leaned Democrat; however, it’s not news that Republicans have made inroads, especially in areas such as South Florida and South Texas. This key constituency appears up for grabs. The challenge for either party is how to win us over.

You see, we’re a complex and nuanced population, especially on the East End and in Suffolk County in general. Unlike the Southwest, where Mexican Americans predominate, or Florida, where the Cuban experience frames things, or even New York, where Puerto Ricans and Dominicans have reigned, we’re from a grab bag of countries and are a relatively new population that’s very much in formation.

Census data shows that in District 1, 65 percent of the Latino population identifies as other than Mexican, Puerto Rican or Cuban. Generally, it’s a mix of people from El Salvador, Colombia, Ecuador, Guatemala and more recently some Venezuelan asylum seekers.

What’s the diff’ if you’re a politician? A heck of a lot.

Take, for example, Salvadorans, arguably the largest of this Hispanic mix. Until recently, they could probably be counted on by Democrats, given that many came here under the Temporary Protective Status program, which Donald Trump threatened to shut down.

But El Salvador has undergone brutal domestic unrest, a lot of it driven by gangs. The country now has a charismatic, populist leader, President Nayib Bukele, a strongman whose tactics have converted the country from one of the most violent in the hemisphere to one of the most peaceful. He spoke at CPAC this year. The stretch to another perceived strongman, Donald Trump, ain’t long, despite past history.

The lesson for anyone courting the Latino vote is that the population is complex, filled with crosscurrents, with some of the turbulence originating in and still influenced by the country of origin.

Another challenge in garnering the Latino vote is where and how Latinos get their information. We depend on social media even more than the general population because of language and cultural barriers. About 70 percent of Latinos use social media as their main source for political and electoral news.

The wild card here is disinformation. Spanish-language social media has been riddled with it, especially in South Florida, where some attribute the swing to the right in 2020 and 2022 to a lot of social media-based mischief-making. Narratives like “stop the steal” boomerang from U.S. elections to places like Brazil and Colombia, and back again, via, for example, family conversations on WhatsApp. As one watchdog journalist put it, “There are no borders for this information.” Spanish language fact-checking is sparse.

Even a key issue like immigration has its evolving contradictions. In California, where the seminal anti-immigration bill, Proposition 187, led to a generation-long turn to the left and a welcoming attitude to undocumented migrants, things have soured. I know this to be true even in my own family.

For all our potential, the “sleeping giant” of the Hispanic voter seems to be on an extended siesta out here on eastern Long Island. According to political consultant Mike Dawidziak, as reported by the Brookhaven Latino Voter Project, “Of the 100,000 Hispanic residents living in the 1st Congressional District, fewer than 40,000 people with Latino first or last names have registered to vote. Of those, only 9 percent showed up at the polls.”

I won’t even try to matchbook this math, but it’s a pittance for such a rich vein. However, in a tight election, every vote counts, especially one with so much potential.

So, for any political candidate vying for office across the vast geographical expanse from western to eastern Suffolk County, what’s the silver bullet, the magical incantation, the “abramedigoyo” (that’s Spanish for “open sesame,” according to my Spanglish)? Beats me. Or, better stated, there is no one answer other than the old-fashioned elbow grease of retail politics.

You see, we Latinos want to be seen and heard, like any other constituency, only more so, because despite our numbers, we’ve been less visible.

We want you to listen to our concerns and understand our needs. As Eli Valentin noted in Gotham Gazette, “When political parties and candidates fail to engage Latinos, turnout lags. But intentional and strategic engagement efforts, tackling critical policy issues that affect Latino communities … all remind Latinos of their value and importance in the political/electoral sphere.”

What are the issues that affect Latinos? According to UnidosUS (formerly National Council of La Raza), in a report filed late last year, they’re not that different from the general U.S. population, but with the accent placed on a slightly different place.

Inflation and the rising cost of living ranks as the No. 1 issue (54 percent), followed by jobs and the economy (44 percent), health care (33 percent), crime/gun violence (29 percent), lack of affordable housing (25 percent) — with immigration and the border (20 percent) number six.

When it comes to “which party do you believe shares your values?” it’s Democrats (49 percent) over Republicans (20 percent). On handling issues in the upcoming elections, on Medicaid, Democrats get 48 percent vs. 19 percent for Republicans. Abortion goes 45 percent to Democrats vs. 21 percent for Republicans. On immigration, it’s 41 percent Democrats, 26 percent Republicans.

But perhaps the most interesting result of all, and for me the one that brings the greatest hope, is that when it comes to a candidate, the most important trait is “Bringing people together” (91 percent), followed by “Has realistic policy ideas” (90 percent), then “Fights for my priorities, will compromise to get things done” (90 percent).

Perhaps I shouldn’t be surprised. We’re a practical group who wants to get things done.

Just ask us.